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основанных на известных методиках расчета атмосферного рассеяния:
Гауссовской[2] и ОНД-86[3].
ГМК является завершающим звеном в единой схеме сбора и обработ-
ки данных ПЭБ, включающей выполнение первичных измерений, сбор,
передачу, накопление и комплексный анализ оперативной экологической
информации.

Литература:

1. Кульба В.В., Архипова Н.И.. Управление в чрезвычайных ситуациях.
– М.: РГГУ, 1994.
2. Бызова Н.Л. Рассеяние примеси в пограничном слое атмосферы. М.,
Гидрометеоиздат, 1974.
3. Методика расчета концентраций в атмосферном воздухе вредных ве-
ществ, содержащихся в выбросах предприятий. ОНД-86 Л., Гидроме-
теоиздат, 1987.




150
PROBLEMS OF ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSIS
OF DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIA AND
MONTENEGRO
Janich S.S.
(PhD student, Institute of Control Sciences RAS, Russia Federation,
Moscow, 334-89-59)


Present situation in Serbia and Montenegro can be described as unstable if
we consider the level of stability, but if we consider the level of tension – as a
conflict and very critical. I have to note that the situation is defined by the insta-
bility of basic factors of world development.
At last time in the center of attention of intellectual and political elite of
Serbia and Montenegro and other countries, which feel serious crisis events,
exist a phenomenon of world globalization and all factors, appearing because of
it. Correctly, in the conditions of globalization happened an unique branching of
many conditions of human existence, which are under influence of different
transfers – possibilities of purposeful and speculative managing on direction
higher than government borders: manipulating with floating rates of exchange
and short-term speculative capital, repudiating of national politic, expropriation
of national accumulation, depreciation of work of hundreds millions people, etc.
Historical analysis shows that the people try to solve two basic problems
from the end of XVIII century:
? gathering of national sovereignty and independence, a freedom with-
out outside pressure;
? establishing of democratic control under domestic government and putting
its will under voter’s will and constitutions norms and rights.
But, reality of developed world makes a questions connected with the truth
of democratic modern epoch: nation’s guarantees of unsanctioned outside influ-
ence, democratic control under forces which organized that influence today
can’t be provided. Therefore global prognosis has to provide creating of warn-
ing knowledge about social-political situation in the country and defining of
effective and allowed alternatives in the time and valuable resources for the
people getting a part in decision-making process.
However, an experience shows that the future can become more terrible
than the most terrible past. Generally, analysis shows that history doesn’t give to
man practically any guarantee. It means that it is necessary to indicate objective
character of alternatives, concluded in fact that social-political situation in the
country can develop according different scenarios and it is very sensitive to
151
choice of strategic managing decisions and it conceals indefinites, which can
help or make damage.
The analysis shows that because of several facts future as a continuing of
present time, correctly quantitative increasing of parameters and tendencies is
not possible in conditions of political, economical, social and ecological bifur-
cations. Firstly, it is connected with an ecological «limits of growth» – ecologi-
cal overloading the country because of long period of bombing. Secondly, it is
connected with dangerous tendencies of human degeneration which is showed
not only in catastrophic deteriorating of moral statistic not only in the sphere of
collective behavior, but in the sphere of modern elite’s behavior in the case of
decision-making process in the political, economical and administrative areas.
Thirdly, it is connected with deeper social polarization among adapted and
inadapted parts of citizens. World Press proves that the process of global devel-
opment can be realized by aggregating developing countries, regions and classes
to unique standard which pretending to be historical goal of humanity. In fact,
we can see that world’s disunity already works as rapid mechanism of destruc-
tion of our planetary civilization who transforms a relationships from solidarity
and confidence to simple social-darvinistic selection, to wars between all peo-
ple, to existing doubt.
Developed modernization theory explains, from the one side, historical
progress as a «overtaking development» – approaching of undeveloped periph-
ery to already formed standard by the Western countries: from the other side,
this theory already explained non existence of perspective of overtaking way,
giving a references on ecological «growth limits» and obstacles, connected with
traditional mentality. In that conditions, the long-term prognosis from social-
economic and political managing elite of Serbia and Montenegro has to find to
itself a support in other traditions and intentions of culture don’t connected with
satisfying of wants of western modern.
The basic principles of analysis and prognosis of social-political situation
in the country are presented by:
? the principle of indefiniteness of the future which appropriates to new sci-
entific picture of the world, connected with the critics of the classical de-
terminism and with getting bigger role of stochastic processes;
? the term «bifurcation» – separating of the flows, getting definite critical
value which loses dependence between past and future conditions and
systems;
? the principle of the space-time discrete. It means that in the points of bifur-
cation can appear qualitative new conditions whose can give qualitative
different future. It supposes that mechanic extrapolations of got tendencies
are not correct and they can’t be the base for the long-term prognosis of
development of social-political situation in Serbia and Montenegro.
152
Real conflict social-political situations (SPS) and scenarios of their devel-
opment studied by: 1) traditional historical analysis, or 2) new methods of
analysis of relationships between conflicting countries, or 3) statistical analysis
of political, social and economic variables.
Low degree of definiteness and reliability of getting data complicates
analysis of real scenarios of development of SPS. Statistic analysis gives, at the
best, describing, but not explaining of events. On that way even in the case of
full success, statistical methods allows only defining of tendencies, but don’t
give a possibility of managing with something will happen. Many conclusions
resulted of the analysis of the real material become non-realizing in any objec-
tive way.
In suggested further way it is made an attempt to unit a force sides indi-
cated higher ways and to avoid or minimize problems connected with them. In
that case the advantages of managing experiments and serious quantitative
analysis are saved and they characterizes the first type way and realism which
characterizes the second and the third types ways.
Suggested model of development of Serbia and Montenegro is enough
simple and at the same time satisfies next conditions:
1. It provides control of many hypotheses about all essential events (an ex-
ample of dynamics of large-scale conflicts). It is understand that the sort of
control such as this can’t prove validity any hypotheses about reality, but they
can help or limit generality of them or find a way of their generalization.
2. Obvious constructive definitions of all variables which describe the
model of SPS are provided and units of their measurement also. Besides, the
model allows showing the simplification of experimental situation according the
reality and some variables (an example, which variables consider constant).
3. Essential features of behavior of experimental model can be described
by quantitative terms.
4. Experimental situation model is made on the way allowing decomposi-
tion on several more simple situations already studied. This allows connecting
of new results with already known.
The experiments can be made with separate part of model of SPS too, cor-
rectly with more simple conflict situations.
One of the showing methods of information about possible changes of so-
cial-political situation in Serbia and Montenegro and of making effective man-
aging decisions is scenario of development of situation. The term – scenario in
management theory is enough new and at present time it is used very often, es-
pecially during the analysis of strategic managing decisions in social-political
and military sphere. Using of this term is not always constructive because of its
illegibility of definition and understanding its role for solving of strategic man-
aging tasks.

153
In this paper we suggest to use scenario as a tool of formal analysis of al-
ternative variants of development of SPS with given needed and rated norms in
the conditions of indefiniteness when there is no possibility for directly making
concrete plane of realization of activities for realization of chosen strategy. On
that way, scenarios of development of social-political situation is necessary in-
termediate link between stages of defining of the goal and forming and realiza-
tion of concrete managing decisions. Conventionally, scenario is some possible
multy-graph showing maximum of possible ways and happens and possible re-
lationships between them.
Forming of scenarios of development of SPS in Serbia and Montenegro
allows to develop the strategies of organization and realization of preventing
and operating steps for changing the situation, to form strategic and tactic plans
for activities, to realize quantitative analysis of consequences, and to make a
prognosis the data about suggested losses, damage and current destabilization
risk SPS.
Depending of the form of researching object scenario can be presented as:
? system of preconditions of change of SPS;
? every possible variants of the decisions;
? change of situation in the time.
The next stages of realization the information work exists during the or-
ganizations of researching of processes of appearing and development of big
disputed SPS:
1. general introducing with problem;
2. defining of using terms and concepts;
3. accumulation of facts;
4. interpretation of facts;
5. making of hypothesis;
6. conclusions;
7. presentation.
The essence of the method of scientific researching of processes of ap-
pearing and development the disputed SPS consists in the fact that work, real-
ized on every stage considered as a preliminary. As a result of work realized on
every stage, can be included changes depending of new data, received during the
researching subsequent stages. On example, we can’t realize gathering of the
facts at the moment and finish in one step.
After gathering of part of facts, their interpretation will show what sort of
tendency the researching problems of SPS development has to be for gathering
additional facts, and on that way to give direction for subsequent researching
work.
The same situation is on other stages also. An example, general work plan
about scenario development of stable politic, economic and social development
154
of Serbia and Montenegro is preliminary at the moment of its development. We
have to be ready to accept preliminary plan and at the same time we have to be
ready to come back and bring changes in our preliminary plan every time when
there exist a necessity because of receiving new data.
In the framework of scenario’s approach the objects of researching are ba-
sic directions and programs of reorganization of social-economic system of Ser-
bia and Montenegro, its household’s mechanism, the ways of growth of operat-
ing benefits of its economics, improvement of its structure, reestablishment of
inter-economic and outside economic equilibrium of its households, the meth-
ods of effective mobilization of resources, an arrangements for protection the
most vulnerable groups of citizens during the realization of reforms, an ar-
rangements for accommodations of ethnic conflicts.
The scenario development of social-economic system is a model of process
of changing the social-economic situation (SES), connected with appearing and
development social-economic events and that situation is defined with changing
basic factors in discrete time area with given time-step.
The scenario of SPS development in Serbia and Montenegro we under-
stand as a trajectory of motion in phase area of system’s conditions. Correctly,
we understand scenario as a dating note of social-economic events complying
with changes of condition of system and her elements in the time and to causal
interconnections between them. There is several variants or development pro-
grams for social-economic system and it means – a several scenarios. Every
scenario is a prognosis of behavior of system in the time and to choose one of
them, an example the most probable is not possible always.
The dynamics of forming scenarios can be defined by interconnection of
basic social-economic processes and factors active in system and changing con-
dition of her elements. Interconnections of basic processes can form cycles of
feedbacks. Interconnections of cycles can stimulate growing rippling of social-
economic factors or sharply droningly intensification of them – resonance.

The problems of scenario analysis of dynamic processes of politic, eco-
nomic, organizing and social types are very complicated because they are de-
scribed with big quantity of difficult defining variables, structure and analytic
interconnections and dependences between them. In the process of research of
tasks that sort it is necessary using the mathematic procedures adequate to their
complexity and multiplicity transferring assumptions about future behavior of
system, development of situation or events in mathematic construction and then
analyzing their behavior and development using suitable mathematic means.
The basic procedure connected with using scenario approach and prognosis
and analysis of behavior (development) of complicated social-politic situations
(systems) and realization alternative strategic programs are presented on scheme 1.

155
Scenario of Prognosis of Mathematic
behavior (development) deduction prognosis in
of SPS (situation) terms of events of
scenarios



Translation, Interpretation
induction



Information about Control The estimation of
SPS and programs of effectiveness of
her development development programs
(change) (change)




Scheme 1.

The gathering of the data about studied social-politic situation happens on
the initial stage. Then defined conceptions and assumptions concerning situation
(system) on serious mathematic level are formed and mathematic model allow-
ing making scenarios of her behavior (development) are formed too. Next two
blocks of contour are intended for gathering concrete scenarios of behavior of
system, for estimation of received results and subsequent modification of the
model. With that goal using mathematic methods, developed specially for
analysis of received scenarios, we make mathematic prognosis defining (on the
language of events of scenario) final results of realization of accepted in the
frame of scenario conceptions and strategic programs of system development.
Because basic model and made, using her, scenarios of system behavior
are synthesizing of accepted conceptions and ways of decisions, chosen for re-
searching of strategic, political, ethnic, social and economic problems, we have
a possibility substantially increase effectiveness of processes of strategic prog-
nosis, planning and managing for some iterations.
Analysis of character of dynamic processes appearing during the develop-
ment social-politic situation under influence of different nature indignations is
very important link for formal procedures of broad class tasks of analysis the
problems of accepting decisions and managing on macro- level. Characteristic
that type problems – problems, appearing during the researching bad-structured
and non-structured problems with low level of precision of initial data and
quantitative character of description of postulated dependences. That makes not
effective an aspiration for receiving serious quantitative decisions with the help
of correct normative models. In those conditions, the role of analysis methods
156
starts to be higher. The results of the analysis allow judging about the most
probable and advisable destinations of dynamic process development, about
their stability and other desirable and not desirable characteristics from the point
of view of operating side working with information about the characteristics of
researching situation (system). Noticed circle of problems can be researched on
the base of model making of interference between macro-level factors on stabil-
ity of situation (system) development in the whole. At the same time, modeling
is considered as a try, firstly, to remove outside and inside indefiniteness ac-
companying to situation development prognosis, secondly – to suggest a way
for transferring indefiniteness process to managing process.
Social-politic situation (system) consists big quantity of variables, which
interactive to each other and responding to changes of all other variables, etc.
Relatively low level of initial data precision of and qualitative character of some
describing dependences is characteristic for most of practical applications of
managing development SPS tasks. It makes aspiration for receiving serious
quantitative decisions meaningless on subtle quantitative models.
Conducted researching of different mathematic models about estimation of
effectiveness of decisions connected with development management and func-
tioning SPS problems showed next: in these goals it is very suitable to use sub-
ject-object graph methodology, subject-object weighted graph methodology and
subject-object functional graph methodology. This method allows work with
data qualitative and quantitative types. The level of using quantitative data can
be increased depending of possibilities the quantitative estimation of interactive
factors in iteration modeling cycle. Expediency and availability of that method
in this sphere define by his relative mathematic simplicity. That allows over-
come known high calculating laboriousness barriers, which appears because of
need of consideration of big quantity the essential factors, also bad sensitivity to
exactness initial data and possibility for making adequate models depending of
factor’s quantity.
Subject-object passed methodology allows making development scenarios
or motion SPS trajectories in phase area of her variables (factors) on basis of
information about her structure and situation development programs on the way
of their trajectory parts impulse processes approximation using subject-object
graph methodology.
Strategic decisions, giving on the state government body level and big re-
gion, have a final goal to get over from some initial «non-balanced» SES to
«balanced» or not very tense situation (condition), which satisfies needed crite-
rions and goals. That’s why during the SPS development modeling we have to
draw attention to these interconnections, which reinforce or suppress deviation
from the balance condition, both separated situations, and the system in the
whole.

157
The basic goal of the SPS scenario development analysis is discovering the
process interaction structure. These processes define growth or decrease the
extraordinary social-politic situation appearing risk, correctly the stability SPS
analysis.
As distinct from classic balance approach, which draws attention mainly to
balanced conditions of complex systems and dynamics of their behavior in small
area of these conditions, the central element of modern views on stability prob-
lems is a conception – «structural stability», which advises detachment and
analysis of qualitative changes in system’s motion trajectory in phase area dur-
ing the structural changing in the system.
On that way, necessary stage analysis of the SES structural stability analy-
sis is making her subject-object graph model and separation these processes,
which have an essential influence on the extraordinary SPS appearing risk.
We have to notice that analysis of the social-politic security problems we
have to carry out taking into account interconnections between sources of sting
places, threats and losses appearing as a result of realization of the threats. Be-
sides, the analysis has to be realized in double aspects. Firstly, from the position
of the estimation of realizing of country development program and her going out
from the crisis, the defining of intermediate and final effects; secondly, starting
from the problems of the estimation of government body work in defined period
of time, we have to detect the tendencies and antagonisms of her development.
Combination of different directions of the analysis and different factors
interferences, exogenous and endogenous variables, gives a possibility the most
completely and comprehensively study and discover, also estimate effectiveness
of alternative scenarios of Serbia and Montenegro transfer to stable develop-
ment on the basis of full consideration of characteristics and potential possibili-
ties the social-economic objects of the nation, which are, as all that type objects,
purposeful systems.
Therefore, global prognosis of development of Serbia and Montenegro is a
procedure of finding of quantitative new conditions of mutual-connected world
on the whole. These new conditions are connected with local, regional, state and
global control. It has to arm political elite of the country for the process of
making decisions with new information and knowledge needed for making
short-term managing scenarios of Serbia and Montenegro development, for re-
alizing of political expert opinion and for choice of acceptable alternatives.
In the global world in front of every nation appears big dilemma: or it can
build itself effective strategy of the country’s future or this strategy for them can
build other, but according different interests.
The basic problems of analysis and prognosis of tendencies of develop-
ment of Serbia and Montenegro are: objective and critical estimation of activity
state government of realizing of existing complex programs of optimal leading

158
out the country from the crisis; showing of character of threats of the state na-
tional safety, scale and reasons of deflection the real social-economic situation
indexes from needed; taking into consideration the influence of many factors on
these deflections; showing political and inside economic reserves; definition of
allowed and choice of the effective alternatives to transfer the country on the
way of sustainable non-critical development.

REFERENCES

1. Arhipova N.I., Kulba V.V. (1994). Management in extreme situations.
The Moscow state humanitarian university, Moscow.
2. Kulba V.V., Kovalovsky S.S., Kononov D.A., Chernov I.V., Shelkov
A.B. (2000). Problems of maintenance of economic security of compli-
cated social-economic systems. Preprint/Institute of Control Sciences RAS,
Moscow.




159
ПРОГРАММНЫЙ КОМИТЕТ:

Бурков В.Н. – председатель (Москва).

Алескеров Ф.Т. (Москва); Баркалов С.А. (Воронеж); Воропаев
В.И. (Москва); Горгидзе И.А. (Тбилиси); Дорофеюк А.А. (Москва);
Ерешко Ф.И. (Москва); Еременко Ю.И. (Старый Оскол); Заруба
В.Я. (Харьков); Ириков В.А. (Москва); Киселева Т.В. (Новокузнецк);
Кононенко А.Ф. (Москва); Кузнецов В.Н. (Тверь); Кузнецов Л.А.
(Липецк); Кулжабаев Н.М. (Алматы); Кульба В.В. (Москва); Литвак
Б.Г. (Москва); Новиков Д.А. (Москва); Палюлис Н.К. (Вильнюс);
Прангишвили И.В. (Москва); Фокин С.Н. (Минск); Цвиркун А.Д.
(Москва); Щепкин А.В. (Москва); Юсупов Б.С. (Ташкент); Bubnit-
sky Z. (Wroclaw); James G. (Coventry)




ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННЫЙ КОМИТЕТ:

Бабиков В.М., Балабаев А.И., Буркова И.В., Динова Н.И.,
Дзюбко С.И., Комаровская Л.Н., Новиков Д.А. (председатель).




160
НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАБОТЫ КОНФЕРЕНЦИИ

Секция 1. Базовые модели и механизмы теории активных
систем
Сопредседатели секции – д.ф-м.н., проф. Кононен-
ко А.Ф., д.т.н., проф. Новиков Д.А.
Секция 2. Принятие решений и экспертные оценки
Сопредседатели секции – д.т.н., проф.
Дорофеюк А.А., д.т.н., проф. Литвак Б.Г.
Секция 3. Прикладные задачи теории активных систем
Сопредседатели секции – д.т.н., проф. Ириков В.А.,
д.т.н., проф. Щепкин А.В.
Секция 4. Управление финансами
Сопредседатели секции – д.т.н., проф. Ерешко Ф.И.,
д.т.н., проф. Цвиркун А.Д.

Секция 5. Управление безопасностью
в сложных системах
Председатель секции – д.т.н., проф. Кульба В.В.




161

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